정부 셧다운 동안에 트럼프는 도박을 했다 On The Shutdown, Trump Played The Odds |
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/01/on_the_shutdown_trump_played_the_odds.html
The U.S. federal government (more precisely, only one quarter of the government) was shut down for 36 days. Opinions of this shutdown, as expected, vary. In the left camp, a victory is celebrated, and in the right camp, the range of assessments extends from bitterness of defeat (the majority) to cautious optimism like "well, we will see who wins" (a minority).
왜, 이 견해가 고려되지 않습니까? 아마도 그것은 분쟁의 감정적인 배경, 즉 낸시펠로지 그녀가 새로 획득한 의회 권력을 즐기고있고, 트럼프 대통령 Donald Trump과 Nancy Pelosi 사이의 개인적인 대립이라는 관점으로 보고 있기 때문일 것입니다. 그러나 스스로에게 물어봅시다 : 펠로지 대신에 다른 사람이 있었다면 트럼프의 위치가 바뀌겠습니까? Trump의 정치적 움직임을 결정한 사람은 펠로지 Pelosi라고 주장할 사람은 거의 없습니다.
However, an idea that does not occur to anyone to consider is one of Trump's victory, no matter how unusual it sounds.
Why is this view not considered? Probably because it is based on the emotional background of the conflict - that is, the personal confrontation between Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi, who is reveling in her newly acquired power. However, let's ask ourselves: would Trump's position change if, instead of Pelosi, there was someone else? Hardly anyone could argue that it was Pelosi who determined Trump's political moves.
In other words, would Trump have initiated a partial government shutdown if someone else owned a gavel in the House of Representatives (Republican, Democrat, or someone else - that doesn't matter anymore)? Of course he would, because his main strategic task is the wall on the southern border - not just a wall as a barrier, but a wall as a symbol of the sovereignty of the country.
To achieve this goal, Trump needs to drive the opposition into a deliberately uncomfortable corner - so uncomfortable that the opposition will begin to seriously think about its strategic role: either stubborn obstructionism or a constructive opposition.
What can make the Democrats do this? Only public opinion. The opposition of Trump and Pelosi should be reconsidered from this point of view - not from the standpoint of the opposition of the gladiator Trump and the gladiator Pelosi, but from the standpoint of winning the sympathies of the spectators in the political Coliseum. Then the idea of Trump's winning immediately moves from the realm of fantasy to the realm of reality.
For about one month, Trump slowly, step by step, squeezed out from the media narrative all the informational garbage not related to the problem of illegal immigration. In a month, everything suddenly became secondary: North Korea, Syria, economy, trade wars with China, the unemployment rate, and racial problems. No one is participating in heated debates over the fact that the number of vacant jobs in America has exceeded the number of unemployed. Few people outside Washington are interested in the vicissitudes of the Mueller investigation. Except for small fringe groups, no one raises the issue of impeachment. Everything has faded into the background except the wall.
As a result, Trump skillfully imposed his agenda on America. As part of this agenda, there came a clear understanding that two ideologies clashed in Washington - one that aims to turn America into a country akin to Venezuela, and the other to build a wall on the southern border. The tasks set by these ideologies are serious strategic goals, and Trump's achievement is the political equivalent of a successful reversal of the Titanic right before an iceberg encounter.
Thanks to Trump, no one in America is left with any doubt about the actual positions of the two opposing sides. It is now clear to all American citizens that the Republicans' position is to close the border and open the government, while the Democrats prefer to open the border and close the government.
Trump has skillfully arranged the scenery for the next stage of political drama. At the same time, he wisely saved his trump card for the final act, either in the form of a declaration of national emergency,or the wall built by the U.S. Army (the law allows this to be done even without the consent of Congress). Moreover, the Democrats are unaware: for some reason, they consider the partial government shutdown advantageous for them. If for the Democrats the upcoming 21 days of negotiations with Trump are a sign of their victory, then for Trump, 21 days of negotiations are the gun on the wall, which, according to Chekhov, must necessarily fire in the third act.
트럼프는 오바마 대통령, 부시 대통령, 클린턴 대통령이 선언한 모든 비상 사태를 연장했다. 또한 트럼프는 카터 대통령이 이전에 선언한 이란과 관련된 국가 비상사태를 확대했다. 현재 미국에는 31 개의 활동적인 국가 비상사태가 있습니다. 참고로 미 의회는 국가 비상사태 신고를 취소할 권리가 있지만, 상하 양원 의원의 3 분의 2의 찬성이 있어야만 취소가 됩니다.
Declaring a state of emergency in America is a fairly frequent thing. President Obama declared national emergencies 12 times, and President G.W. Bush 13 times. By law, a national emergency may be declared by the president for only one year, but, as a rule, all presidents extend their own emergency declarations and the emergency declarations of their predecessors.
Trump extended all the emergencies declared by Presidents Obama, Bush, and Clinton. In addition, Trump extended the national emergency associated with Iran, which President Carter had previously declared. Currently, there are 31 active national emergencies in the United States. For reference, the U.S. Congress has the right to cancel a declaration of a national emergency, but only if both houses of Congress vote for it with a two-thirds majority.
The Democrats still haven't realized what happened to them. It seems that none of them read Machiavelli. After all, they just had to back down and quietly lose a small (only about 0.1% of the U.S. federal budget) political battle over the wall on the border with Mexico, but at the same time save their entire army of supporters, their entire reputation, and their entire political capital that would enable them to confront Trump in the next stage of political struggle.
주요 선수 중 한 명인 뮐러특검 (Mueller)는 무슨 일이 벌어지고 있는지 이해하고서 트럼프 대통령이 부과한 뉴스 사이클의 흐름을 바꾸려고 시도했습니다. 뮐러 (Mueller)의 사진을 폼나게 뽑아준 로저 스톤 (Roger Stone) 정치분석가 체포 사건은 불법 이민과 국경장벽에 관한 이야기를 몇 시간 동안 중단시켜줬다. 그러나 이것은 더이상 회피시키지 못했습니다.
결론적으로, 머피의 법칙 중 가장 잘 알려진 법칙 중 하나에 대해 민주당에 상기시켜주십시오. "모든 것이 잘 진행되고 있다면, 당신은 뭔가를 간과했다." 라구요~
The Democrats went all in. What the Democrats have done is worse than a betrayal of American citizens; this is a mistake.
Note that one of the key players, Mueller, understood what was going on and tried to change the course of the news cycle imposed by Trump. Mueller's photogenic arrest of Roger Stone had stopped the talk about illegal immigration and the wall for a few hours. However, this did not last long.
In conclusion, let's remind the Democrats about one of the best known of Murphy's Laws: "If everything seems to be going well, you have overlooked something."
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이란은 좋고, 북한은 나쁘고, 러시아인들은 도처에 있다고라: 미국 스파이는 상원에 가서 세계적 위험을 그렇게 말한다
| Iran Fine, North Korea Bad, Russians Everywhere: US Spies Tell Senate of World Dangers By Russia Today Jan 30, 2019 - 4:46:35 AM |
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https://www.rt.com/usa/450088-dni-coats-russia-china-iran-nk/
30 Jan, 2019 Get short URL 
국가 정보국장 (DNI) 코츠는 화요일 상원 정보위원회에서 증언했는데, 중국과 러시아는 미국의 일방주의와 개입주의, 그리고 서양의 민주적 가치와 인권 증진에 대한 인식에 반대하여 연합하고 있다고 주장했다. 그는 "미국동맹들은 더 큰 독립을 모색하고 있습니다." 라고 말했다.
US intelligence chief Dan Coats painted a dire picture of a danger-filled world to the Senate, contradicting the Trump administration's optimism on North Korea and pessimism on Iran while beating the drum of Russiagate.
Testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Coats argued that China and Russia are united in opposition to "perceived US unilateralism and interventionism and Western promotion of democratic values and human rights," while a number of US allies "are seeking greater independence."
DNI의 준비된 발언은 트럼프 행정부의 많은 대화 내용, 특히 북한과 이란 문제에 대한 반발을 일으켰지만 중국과 공화당의 일부와 러시아게이트에 대한 민주당의 집착을 반영했다.
He was joined by FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA Director Gina Haspel, Defense Intelligence Agency chief General Robert Ashley, NSA chief General Paul Nakasone, and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) director Robert Cardillo.
The DNI's prepared remarks ran counter to many Trump administration talking points, in particular on the issues of North Korea and Iran - while mirroring the obsession of some Republicans with China and most Democrats with Russia.
트럼프 "국경장벽 위한 비상사태 선포 가능" 1시간전 조선일보 다음뉴스
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“트럼프, 종전준비 마쳐…北침공·전복 않겠다” 1시간전 영남일보
도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 다음 주 제2차 북미 정상회담의 장소와 날짜를 발표하겠다고 밝혔다. 트럼프 대통령은 지난달 31일(현지시각) 백악관에서 기자들과 만나...
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